Our model gives Sogdiana a 54% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Qizilqum.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sogdiana have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Qizilqum have done so in 2 of their last 4.