Our model gives Sogdiana a 37% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 35% for OKMK.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sogdiana have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and OKMK have done so in 3 of their last 4.