Our model gives Sochi a 53% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Volga Ulyanovsk.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sochi have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Volga Ulyanovsk have done so in 1 of their last 3.