Our model gives Smedby a 47% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 31% for Forward.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Smedby have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Forward have done so in 0 of their last 2.