Our model gives Slavia Sofia a 46% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Septemvri Sofia.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Slavia Sofia have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Septemvri Sofia have done so in 3 of their last 3.