Our model gives Skellefteå a 78% chance to win this one, against 14% for a draw and 9% for Boden.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Skellefteå have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Boden have done so in 3 of their last 4.