Our model gives Skanste a 78% chance to win this one, against 11% for a draw and 10% for Tukums II.

Both teams are projected to score in 65% of simulations, against 35% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 83% likelihood against 17% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Skanste have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Tukums II have done so in 2 of their last 3.