Our model gives Sioni a 42% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Aragvi Dusheti.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sioni have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Aragvi Dusheti have done so in 1 of their last 2.