Our model gives Sion a 53% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Thun.

Both teams are projected to score in 65% of simulations, against 35% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sion have gone over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 6, and Thun have done so in 6 of their last 6.