Our model gives Sion a 36% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 37% for Lugano.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sion have gone over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 6, and Lugano have done so in 5 of their last 6.