Our model gives Sion a 37% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 38% for Ajax.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sion have gone over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 6, and Ajax have done so in 3 of their last 4.