Our model gives Siarka Tarnobrzeg a 23% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 55% for Jarosław.

Both teams are projected to score in 65% of simulations, against 35% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Siarka Tarnobrzeg have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Jarosław have done so in 3 of their last 3.