Our model gives Shurtan a 42% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Respublika.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Shurtan have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Respublika have done so in 4 of their last 5.