Our model gives Shurtan a 46% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Kattaqurgon.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Shurtan have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Kattaqurgon have done so in 2 of their last 5.