Our model gives Shrewsbury Town a 29% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 44% for Barnet.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Shrewsbury Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Barnet have done so in 2 of their last 2.