Our model gives Shirak a 21% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 57% for Sardarapat.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Shirak have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Sardarapat have done so in 2 of their last 2.