Our model gives Shirak II a 46% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 32% for Araks Ararat.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Shirak II have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Araks Ararat have done so in 1 of their last 2.