Our model gives Shenzhen 2028 a 63% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Hubei Istar.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Shenzhen 2028 have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Hubei Istar have done so in 1 of their last 4.