Our model gives Shanxi Chongde Ronghai a 47% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Lanzhou Longyuan.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Shanxi Chongde Ronghai have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5, and Lanzhou Longyuan have done so in 3 of their last 6.