Our model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 46% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Beijing Guoan.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Shanghai Shenhua have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Beijing Guoan have done so in 4 of their last 4.