Our model gives Shamrock Rovers a 69% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Waterford United.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Shamrock Rovers have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5, and Waterford United have done so in 2 of their last 4.