Our model gives Shamrock Rovers a 61% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Dundalk.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Shamrock Rovers have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5, and Dundalk have done so in 2 of their last 3.