Our model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 65% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Kudrivka.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Kudrivka have done so in 1 of their last 2.