Our model gives SGV Freiberg a 41% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 38% for Homburg.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, SGV Freiberg have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Homburg have done so in 2 of their last 2.