Our model gives Septemvri Sofia a 39% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Botev Vratsa.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Septemvri Sofia have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Botev Vratsa have done so in 3 of their last 3.