Our model gives Septemvri Sofia a 28% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 44% for Botev Plovdiv.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Septemvri Sofia have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Botev Plovdiv have done so in 2 of their last 3.