Our model gives SD Raiders a 21% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 59% for Sydney.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, SD Raiders have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5, and Sydney have done so in 1 of their last 1.