Our model gives Sawbridgeworth Town a 33% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 45% for Welwyn.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sawbridgeworth Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Welwyn have done so in 1 of their last 1.