Our model gives Sarmiento Resistencia a 59% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Tucumán Central.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sarmiento Resistencia have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Tucumán Central have done so in 2 of their last 4.