Our model gives Sarmiento Resistencia a 46% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 23% for El Linqueño.

Both teams are projected to score in 39% of simulations, against 61% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 34% likelihood against 66% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sarmiento Resistencia have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and El Linqueño have done so in 0 of their last 4.