Our model gives Sarmiento Resistencia a 45% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Boca Unidos.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sarmiento Resistencia have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Boca Unidos have done so in 2 of their last 3.