Our model gives Sarmiento a 24% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 47% for Independiente Rivadavia.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sarmiento have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Independiente Rivadavia have done so in 3 of their last 5.