Our model gives Sardarapat a 15% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 61% for Pyunik.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sardarapat have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Pyunik have done so in 2 of their last 3.