Our model gives Sarasota Paradise a 39% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Chattanooga Red Wolves.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sarasota Paradise have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Chattanooga Red Wolves have done so in 2 of their last 3.