Our model gives SaPa Pieksämäki a 36% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 46% for Metso.

Both teams are projected to score in 72% of simulations, against 28% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 72% likelihood against 28% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, SaPa Pieksämäki have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Metso have done so in 2 of their last 2.