Our model gives Santos a 56% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Mirassol.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Santos have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 6, and Mirassol have done so in 2 of their last 6.