Our model gives Santos a 61% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Chapecoense.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Santos have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Chapecoense have done so in 1 of their last 1.