Our model gives Santos a 52% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Alianza Universidad.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Santos have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Alianza Universidad have done so in 0 of their last 1.