Our model gives Santo Domingo a 26% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 42% for 9 de Octubre.

Both teams are projected to score in 36% of simulations, against 64% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 29% likelihood against 71% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Santo Domingo have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and 9 de Octubre have done so in 0 of their last 1.