Our model gives Santiago Wanderers a 40% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Puerto Montt.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Santiago Wanderers have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Puerto Montt have done so in 1 of their last 4.