Our model gives Santa Lucia a 85% chance to win this one, against 10% for a draw and 5% for Juventud Copalera.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Santa Lucia have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Juventud Copalera have done so in 1 of their last 4.