Our model gives Santa Lucia a 86% chance to win this one, against 10% for a draw and 4% for Coatepeque.

Both teams are projected to score in 35% of simulations, against 65% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Santa Lucia have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Coatepeque have done so in 1 of their last 3.