Our model gives Santa Fe a 36% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Vasco da Gama.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Santa Fe have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Vasco da Gama have done so in 1 of their last 6.