Our model gives Santa Cruz a 52% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Maranhão.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Santa Cruz have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Maranhão have done so in 1 of their last 2.