Our model gives San Telmo a 34% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Deportivo Morón.

Both teams are projected to score in 39% of simulations, against 61% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 30% likelihood against 70% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, San Telmo have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Deportivo Morón have done so in 2 of their last 3.