Our model gives San Marcos a 51% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Copiapó.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, San Marcos have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 5, and Copiapó have done so in 2 of their last 4.