Our model gives San Antonio a 43% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Tulsa Roughnecks.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, San Antonio have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Tulsa Roughnecks have done so in 0 of their last 4.