Our model gives Samgurali a 30% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 43% for Dinamo Tbilisi.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Samgurali have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Dinamo Tbilisi have done so in 3 of their last 3.