Our model gives Sagan Tosu a 39% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Tegevajaro Miyazaki.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sagan Tosu have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Tegevajaro Miyazaki have done so in 0 of their last 2.