Our model gives Sagan Tosu a 36% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 38% for Kataller Toyama.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sagan Tosu have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Kataller Toyama have done so in 1 of their last 2.